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Canadian dollar update – Tuesday June 30, 2020. June ending with greenback in demand.

Canadian dollar update – Tuesday June 30, 2020. June ending with greenback in demand.
Arif Harji
by Arif Harji on June 30, 2020


FX & market recap:

The US dollar added to yesterday’s gains when it opened in NY but compared to its June 1 open, it is down against the major-G-10 currencies, with NZD and AUD leading the pack. GBP was the biggest loser, shedding 0.96%.

FX markets are directionless heading into the US July 4th long weekend. American markets are closed on Friday, and FX liquidity will start to evaporate after the release of the US employment report, and a host of other data.

Today’s US data includes Chicago PMI for June (forecast 45 vs previous 32.3) The Q&A part of the Powell/Mnuchin show at Congress will has potential to create some FX volatility, depending upon the answers the duo provides.

Canadian dollar highlights:

USD/CAD is bouncing between 1.3650-1.3700, with prices closely following EUR/USD moves. Soft oil prices are providing some support to the currency pair as are bullish short term technicals. The Canadian economy is expected to have contracted by 13% m/m in April. The results may be a tad worse, or a tad better, but it won’t matter. Bad news is expected. Instead, USD/CAD direction will be dictated by month end flows and US dollar sentiment.

Euro highlights:

EUR/USD continues to consolidate above support at 1.1170. Eurozone inflation was a tad higher than expected. CPI rose 0.3% y/y compared to 0.1% previously.

British pound highlights:

GBP/USD is suffering from news that the economy contracted by 2.2% in Q1 2020 q/q. Prices are also weighed down by concerns about paying for the UK government’s planned £5 billion infrastructure spending program.

Asia Pacific highlights:

In Asia, China’s PMI point to a post-COVID-19 economic recovery. Better than expected China June PMI data gave the antipodean currencies a boost during the Asia session, but broad US dollar demand in Europe reversed the moves.