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Currency Forecast – December 2019

Forecast-1
Albert Edwards
by Albert Edwards on December 18, 2019

CURRENCY MARKET UPDATE

USD/ CAD Forecast

The Canadian dollar continues to gain against the US dollar despite the poor Canadian jobs data released earlier this month. The rally in oil, the US/ China compromise on tariffs and the UK elections have fuelled the modest rally in the Canadian dollar with short term targets towards 1.31.

Looking ahead to 2020, the USD/ CAD forecasts are mixed with the range between 1.28’s to 1.34’s.  It all depends on how the economic data holds up.

EUR/CAD Forecast

Sluggish Eurozone economic growth persisted in 2019 and it shows no signs of bottoming out. The Euro is expected to modestly rebound in 2020 with a more transparent leadership (Christine Largarde), the unwinding of Brexit risks, resolution of the pending US tariff threat on EU goods and modest Eurozone growth.

GBP/CAD Forecast

Sterling posted huge gains after Boris Johnson’s Party scored an impressive victory in the UK electionsIt was the biggest margin since Thatcher in the late 1980.

Brexit will take place by the end of January, and the focus will shift to three things: new negotiations with the EU over the future trade relationship, the state of the economy, with fiscal stimulus promised, and Carney's replacement at the Bank of England.

Currency Forecast