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Currency Forecast – October 2019

Arif Harji
by Arif Harji on October 15, 2019


This is the month where we get resolution, one way or the other, on the lingering issues that have dominated the markets for most of 2019. Will the US and China continue escalating their trade war?
Will the UK leave the EU with a deal or No deal? Will the US Fed start cutting rates aggressively to support their economy?

Our analytics team has put together a mid-range/long term forecast for the USD, EUR and GBP against the Canadian dollar

USD/CAD Forecast

After another blockbuster Canadian employment report and a string of decent economic data, the loonie should rise but market participants seem unwilling to drive the Canadian dollar higher given the trade, central bank policy and Brexit worries. The Canadian dollar should strengthen to the low 1.30’s if the US data confirms a slowdown in the US economy.

EUR/CAD Forecast

The Eurozone is in bad shape with the economic data showing no signs of improving in the near term. A Brexit deal with UK or the upcoming change in leadership at the ECB may help the Euro’s fortune.

GBP/CAD Forecast

With a Brexit deal in hand (almost). The British pound gained almost 4% on renewed optimism. Now the hard work begins of ironing out the details, keeping the political factions together as the UK lawmakers work out the final details. If Brexit deal is secured, the British pound should strengthen the mid 1.70’s

Currency Forecast